THE ANALYTICS AND FORECASTING ALGORITHM ON GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FACTORS IN RWANDA.

Gender based violence (GBV) is still a common generative health delinquent especially in developing countries of Africa where Rwanda is located. The women are experienced high levels of physical and sexual violence at some point in their lifetime than men. The study objectives determine the prevalence and cases of gender-based violence in Rwanda; establish factors associated with Gender-Based Violence in Rwanda; perform a basic analysis of the GBV Rwandan cases; and to build forecasting model for GBV cases using four models of ML, and interpret the four built models. The population was 500 people from Isange One Stop Center Kacyiru, RWAMUREC and some of the victims of GBV in Rwanda.  The stratified and simple randomly sampling techniques were used to select 83 respondents. The questionnaire and documentary techniques were used to collected secondary data. The study used linear regression algorithm, random forest regressor, decision tree regressor and lasso regressor to build predictive data mining models on the Rwandan GBV dataset. Findings on the prevalence of Gender-Based Violence in Rwanda were indicated by tendency of prevalence of GBV in Rwanda which is moderate as confirmed on 62.0%. The  associated factors of Gender-Based Violence in Rwanda were revealed by domestic violence and child abuse are among the associated factors of GBV as confirmed by 9.0%; insufficient parental supervision for children victims of GBV, confirmed on rate of 5.0%; peer pressure was stated on rate of 3.0%; drug and alcohol use highly confirmed by 41.0% as main associated factors of GBV in Rwanda; traumatic events is as associated factor of GBV as confirmed by 6.0%; mental illness was confirmed on rate of 2.0%; poverty especially in households are stated as among the associated factors of GBV on rate of 26.0%; while other causes or associated factors unstated in this survey, confirmed on rate of 8.0% in all respondents participated in this survey at Rwanda. Findings on basic analysis of the GBV Rwandan cases showed by the prevalence of GBV crimes during four consecutive years. Findings indicated high rate of child defilement in Eastern province followed by southern province and third was western province in child defilement. Spouse harassment was high in southern province than other provinces in Rwanda. The prevalence of GBV crimes has been depicted at the district level, where the following plot reveal it clearly. Findings indicated GBV per district where Bugesera District presented high rate of child defilement than other districts of Rwanda. The predicted results of the row data which have been randomly picked from the entire dataset where the predicted results of the row data which have been randomly picked from the entire dataset. 

Key words: Gender-Based Violence, associated factors; analytics, forecasting

DOI:
2022-11-24 08:42:53 KANYAMUGENGE Clotilde
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