The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aspires to knit 55 economies into a seamless digital marketplace, yet the continent’s celebrated financial technology (FinTech) boom is unfolding on an uneven footing. Synthesising Diffusion ofInnovation (DOI) theory with Dependency Theory inside an Ubuntu inflected critical realist lens, this study pioneers a “diffusionunder dependency” framework that explains why adoption can surge while structural subordination endures. A convergent mixed methods design aligns four country case studies (Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Egypt) with a 12 year Bayesian panel of 40+ states, a venture capital network graph, and natural language processing of policy discourse, collectively tracing the causal interplay between innovation dynamics and power relations. Findings confirm a rapid but skewed inclusion arc: mobile money accounts now reach roughly 40 % of SubSaharan adults and already outnumber bank accounts in 12 jurisdictions, yet 80 % of start up capital and cloud capacity remain foreigncontrolled, mirroring digital neocolonial patterns. Bayesian estimates indicate that strong domestic innovation ecosystems raise adoption by 4–6 percentage points, whereas heavy reliance on extra continental infrastructure suppresses ruralfemale usage by up to 5 points. AfCFTA’s PanAfrican Payment and Settlement System is beginning to trim currency conversion frictions, but scale effects are nascent. Conceptually, the paper adds “structural moderators” to the canonical S curve, showing how ownership, capital provenance, and data localisation bend diffusion trajectories. Methodologically, it demonstrates how Bayesian multilevel modelling, geospatial heat mapping, and sentiment strip analytics can be fused into policy ready evidence. Practically, six sovereignty levers are mapped to specific DigitalTrade Protocol clauses, suggesting that closing gender and rural gaps could unlock an additional US $15 billion in ecommerce value and 24 000 jobs by 2030. AfCFTA can thus catalyse an equitable digitalfinance future only if accelerated diffusion is paired with deliberate localisation of value capture, democratisation of infrastructure, and communal ethics that privilege human capability over platform profit.